Pollin' Blues

OK, I know that polling is not an exact science, but could someone explain to me what's going on? It seems that every poll of West Virginians in the presidential race comes out radically different. Not within a few points of each other, mind you, but like the scatter of a shotgun blast!

For the longest time, WV was firmly in McCain's camp. It wasn't even a battleground state, like the mother commonwealth, and wasn't getting a lot of attention.

Then came this poll from American Research Group that showed Obama with an 8-point lead, 50-42, back on October 8. I don't think any rational Dems really thought things were that rosy, but it still made for an interesting data point.

Now we have two more recent polls, as reported over at Lincoln Walks at Midnight, that don't even agree with each other. One puts McCain back in front by 6 points, while the other literally has it tied: 41.67% for McCain, 41.33% for Obama.

To top things off, yesterday Time had a report noting that Obama is widening the gap on McCain in several traditionally "red" states. Nonetheless:

Still, Obama's ability to make inroads in red states does appear to have some limits; he lost ground in West Virginia — a state his campaign has said they are just starting to contest — and now trails there by 41% to McCain's 53%, which more than doubles McCain's September lead of 49% to Obama's 44%.

How's that for convoluted? The irony being, of course, that before Duhbya, WV was a reliably "blue" state - we voted for Carter and Dukakis, after all!

Two things, at least, are certain.

First, the Obama/Biden campaign, at least, sees WV as being in play. Biden will be in Charleston tomorrow morning for a rally in the heart of downtown. Literally, he'll be speaking in the middle of an intersection in the business district. A nice visual, but it's surely gonna piss off a lot of people who need to get somewhere tomorrow morning. Hopefully they won't be undecideds!

Second, nobody on either side of this election should think that it's over almost two weeks out from election day. Get out. Vote. Make your voice heard.