Wednesday, February 06, 2008

My Cutting Political Analysis

Well, Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday Bright Happy Funtime Hour (Presented by Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs) has come and gone. It was fun to watch unfold, but it didn't really settle much, did it? I'll leave the GOP three-way to someone else, but I think I may have found a useful analogy to the Democratic results from last night:

The Battle of Antietam

That's right, the bloodiest day in American history. Not that it was that ugly. But consider this. Antietam was the finale of a campaign by Lee to bring some of the war north and force McClellan to be defensive for a little while. The pivotal battle in Maryland was a tactical draw, with McClellan unable to push the next day and deliver a crushing blow to Lee's army. It effectively blunted Lee's grand plan, but it didn't really settle anything.

Put Obama in the Lee role (ironically) - the insurgent with momentum from recent victories trying to carry the fight to the established power and perhaps force a breakthrough. Clinton fits the McClellan role, with the more extensive power base and a need to blunt the other side's momentum. The results play out like the battle itself - lots of small victories for both sides, but an overall draw. As the insurgent, Obama has to be a little disappointed that he couldn't breakthrough somewhere like California. On the other had, Clinton couldn't wield the big stick and break Obama's momentum completely. In the end, it's pretty much status quo ante.

Which, of course, begs the question - if last night was Antietam, where and when is Gettysburg?

No comments: